General Update - 20 Sep 2007

Friends,

So those of you who marked my words about Unitech "UNITECH will soon be seen beyond buying range." are certainly filled with joy. Unitech has jumped alll barriers and has yielded 18.47% return in 3 days. That's a 18,470 on 1 Lac investment.

Pity my money did not get to the bank in time and I could not buy it myself. :(

Responses to a few comments on the blog
1. Hold Unitech for about 6 months to see > 400 levels and then sell if you need money.
2. I cannot respond to all individual queries on stocks and hence please bear with me if you do not get a response to your question (after all I have a full time job to do myself, which is not in the money markets).
3. Please note that I am not tracking the futures market as of now although I aim to do that soon.
4. Commodities and Metals are good thing to look at, both Gold and Crude are up and are expected to go that way for the moment.
5. None of you should ever blindly believe anyone who gives you investment advise, do make an effort to perform some analysis of your own.
6. Make sure that you keep 5% of all the profits that you make to help someone in need around you as that is what I expect in return for my advise.

I have a general feeling that it is the IT & other air conditioned office employees that are least aware of the wasteful dumping of their in banks.

A lot of us buy a LIC policy only because a friend of your Dad/Mom is a LIC agent. This goes on for ever and is a household story. Similarly most of us do not even ever evaluate the need for insurance, medical protection, home insurance or investing non-conventional instruments.

As a thumb rule everyone under 27 yrs should invest 20% in stocks, 10% in mutual funds and 10% in a RD in the bank. For 27 - 35 it should be 15% in stocks, 15% in mutual funds and 10% in a RD in the bank.

OK, that's enough of lecturing now. But think and take steps to manage your money on your own.

Back to the markets, seems they are duplicating the India cricket team for now. India - Australia will be a tough one and the next week seems the same for the markets. Today's lull after yesterday's bonanza was a shock and hence watch the markets from the sidelines.

Do not enter Unitech at this level, watch and invest below 320 level only.
Fortis - Stay put.
Ispat - stay put.
Mercator - Buy on declines.

Cheers,
Tarun

Returns Update - 18 Sep 2007 (50% barrier broken)

Friends,

I assume you are laughing your way home this festive season. It has already become festive for you as one of your investments has given you more than 50% return now. The others are soon getting there.

Shown below is the Profit Statement assuming that you invested INR 10000 in the recommended scrip on the day.

Important to note that FORTIS has got into the spin and is now moving up. UNITECH will soon be seen beyond buying range.

I am already left with no money to invest and am repenting that. Just to give you an idea of my portfolio, my profits on the current holdings went up by INR 7425 today.

So if you have already booked some profits then go out and make merry.

I was taken by surprise when one of my good friends (ANKUR DUGGAL) who never invested in stocks responded to one of my returns update post saying that he was rocking with the huge profit he made in ISPAT, after he took my suggestion to invest. I am glad he made the profit.
:)

P.S - Feel free to forward this email on to your friends, who you think might benefit from it.

Cheers,
Tarun

5th Pick and useful updates

Good Morning India,

You have just woken up to a new pick on my radar and India's comical victory over Pakistan, no doubt that the Kiwis proved better than India.

Our Holdings
1. ISPAT has gone through the roof, touched 20.6 and now quoting at 19.7 (37% return).
2. Mercator touched 73 to close at 68.30, there's a lot of steam in it.
3. Fortis is still at good buying levels, buy on every dip.
4. Those of you who have already booked some profits on my recommendations, please make sure that you keep a 5% of the profit aside for me. I will ask you to spend it somewhere around the festival time (probably help a househelp/security guard in your company to fund their kids school fees, etc). Hope you would not mind that.

General Updates
1. I assume all of you applied for the Powergrid IPO, those who did not can smile and those who did can as well. The IPO was oversubscribed over 64 times, which applicants get loose change (very less shares). Make sure that you get your money out in time to buy after the share lists and stabilises.

2. You can check the subscription details at the link below http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/ipochart/ipochart.jsp?issue=PGCILCUMUEQ&ir=I&cn=C&sd=D&cnlink=N

3. One good site that I use to track IPO's is http://www.chittorgarh.com/newportal/ipo_calendar_india.asp

4. Did you know that ELSS instrument helps you with a income tax rebate and gives you much better returns than any other conventional tax saving financial instruments?

5. In my next post I will detail how investing in ELSS should make huge money for you while you remain carefree about it.

5th Pick
OK, here is the next pick that I have been analysing for a while and am now tempted to give it out. The winner is ............ UNITECH.

I will leave all of you to do a bit of analysis yourself and ask you to drop me the analysis at findtarun@yahoo.com (with subject UNITECH).

CMP (Current Market Price) - 282.90
Horizon - 2 years plus
Expected returns - at least 150%
Disclosure - will buy on dips
Entry price - below 300

Please note that if Unitech comes anywhere near 265 levels, make sure you put in some money.

Happy investing.

Tarun

Returns Update - 13 Sep 2007 :)

Friends,

This is where we are.
MERCATOR makes it over 25% return and ISPAT is beyond 30%.


Script Name Buy Price Mkt Price Profit / Loss
Mercator Lines 55 70.2 27.64%
Ispat Industries 14.5 18.95 30.69%
Fortis Healthcare 84 84.3 0.36%

Cheers,
Tarun

india long term picks

Returns Update - 11 Sep 2007 :)

Hmm...

So everyone who bought as per my recommendations seem to be making money....
(I am happy that I have been able to do that).

Script Name	Qty	Buy Price	Mkt Price	Profit / Loss
Mercator Lines	100	55	64.3	16.91%
Ispat Indus	100	14.5	19.25	32.76%
Fortis Health	100	84	84.45	0.54%

And did you notice that the market is actually giving negative returns...

IDX	Value	Change	%
SENSEX	15,505.36	-37.41	-0.24

So say cheers.... and hope that I have a nice trip to India (Oh .. I forgot to tell all of you that I am based in London).

Cheers,
Tarun

Why buy FORTIS Healthcare?

Friends,

As a result of a query, I am providing a few more details on buying FORTIS. I managed to buy a few last Friday.

1. Since DLF has now got the money from the public (IPO, hence established a more publicly visible brand) and FORTIS is listed as well, these create favorable conditions for expansions. Since both have a national presence and the sector is almost niche, there is only one direction that the stock will move in, in the long term.

2. It should not be forgotten that it is the HEALTHCARE business lacks enough corporatisation and the ones with a sound business model can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

3. The business model that FORTIS is building on, is that the entire infrastructure from DLF for this deal and then RANBAXY to back it up with Pharma requirements and probably use US as a market to sell their Medi-tourism products (if they go down that route, since Ranbaxy also has a network in place in US),

4. The company is constructing a 950-bed Medicity (medical education hubs) in Gurgaon. This will be a teaching hospital and called FIIMS (on lines of AIIMS). FORTIS intends to build 10 such medicities in India.

5. FORTIS plans to have 40 hospitals by 2010 (28 to be added to the current 12).

6. Read here more on APOLLO (in general to get a view of what’s happening in the sector) - http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/004200708050343.htm

7. Organised private healthcare is where I am betting my money (FORTIS) as all the other players are established and high up with lesser upside left.

DISCLOSURES – I hold this stock and will continue to buy on dips.

HORIZON - > 2 years (personally I would keep it for >4 years)

Cheers,

TG

Note – Again this is my personal investment rationale, you are advised to research to look for more information.

4th pick - FORTIS Healthcare

Friends,

While both my previous picks are doing well in market, it is time to announce the next pick. Although I had originally intended to buy a Infrastructure company, I am now making a deviation to Medical Infrastructure.

The next pick is FORTIS HEALTHCARE, priced at 85.40 as I write this against an issue price of 100 during the IPO.

Rationale

1. DLF, Fortis to invest Rs 3,000cr for 15 hospitals (DLF and Fortis have signed an alliance agreement to develop about 15 'Centre of Excellence' hospitals in townships being developed by DLF in the first five years).

2. FORTIS is in advanced talks to take over Chennai-based Malar Hospital. It has made an offer of around Rs 60 crore for the 250-bed hospital.

3. Remember FORTIS also has a Financial Services arm and the group will certainly make sure that the stock surfaces above the IPO price (you know the stock price can be easily managed by companies themselves, a financial service is shot in the arm).

4. Private healthcare accounts for 75 per cent of India’s total healthcare expenditure

5. Government spending on healthcare totalled just $3.7bn in 2001, or 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product.

6. India has 1.5 hospital beds per 1,000 people, compared with 4.3 beds in the average developing country, according to a report from McKinsey and the Confederation of Indian Industries.

Horizon – 1-2 yrs for > 100% returns

Cheers,

Tarun

Update - 05 Sep 2007

Hmm...

The markets have taken a bit of a beating today and our stocks have marginally corrected (they are still well beyond the recommended entry price).

Since the stocks recommended are for a LONG TERM perspective (2-3 yrs) do not be bothered by fall in the markets. Treat the falls as a buying opportunity.

I would inclined to add more MERCATOR LINES if it goes anywhere near 52-53. ISPAT should be added if it goes anywhere near 15.

So sleep easy and wake up when the markets are down to a BUY level.

Cheers,
Tarun